Ecommerce fraud losses of $20bn expected in 2021, China to be key fraud market

A new study by Juniper Research has highlighted it expects over $20bn in ecommerce losses this year due to online payment fraud – a rise of 18% compared to 2020.  

According to the study – titled Online Payment Fraud: Emerging Threats, Segment Analysis and Market Forecasts 2021-2025 – fraudsters have increasingly targeted consumers as they increase their use of ecommerce. This, Juniper, claims, exposes insecure fraud mitigation processes from merchants who are unprepared for the continuing fraud challenges in the market.

To deal with this challenge, the study called on merchants to do more to introduce fraud prevention strategies across all their ecommerce channels, recommending the use of AI to enable behavioural biometrics in this area, which will bolster security across all potential fraud channels.

The research also found that while merchants will be keen to cut fraud rates from current levels, they may be hesitant to introduce extra friction into the checkout process.

The Juniper study singled out China as the number one ecommerce fraud market globally – with the country accounting for over 40% of ecommerce fraud losses in 2025 at over $12bn. The massive ecommerce market and a relative lack of fraud detection and prevention platform deployment were identified as the key influences behind this finding.

Research co-author Susan Morrow said, “While the need for security is greater than ever, the competitive eCommerce environment means merchants will need to ensure that extra security checks are justified to the user, or they risk higher cart abandonment rates.”

A study by Juniper last year predicted ecommerce merchant losses caused by online payment fraud will exceed $25bn by 2024.

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