A new report commissioned by Tietoevry Banking and authored by Celent forecasts a dramatic transformation in European digital commerce over the next decade, predicting total transaction values will exceed €1.090tn across five major markets—Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the UK—by 2035.
Titled A Future of European Payments, the report outlines how payment methods, consumer behaviour, and technology will evolve. It identifies three core trends that will reshape the sector: the shift in payment rails, the expansion of pay now/pay later options, and the emergence of AI-powered commerce agents.
Account-to-Account (A2A) services are expected to gain significant traction, with their share of digital payments forecast to rise from 24% in 2025 to nearly 40% by 2035. While card usage will continue to grow in absolute terms, it is anticipated to lose market share to A2A models. Wallets will remain integral to the ecosystem, but as technology blurs the lines between different platforms, their distinct presence may diminish. Meanwhile, digital assets—including a potential digital Euro—could also enter the mix, although their role will likely remain marginal.
The report also expects a surge in flexible payment options. Credit and Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) tools will play a growing role in supporting A2A and wallet transactions. Credit-linked A2A transactions are projected to reach €35.7bn by 2035, accounting for just over 7% of all pay-later payments.
However, the most striking change may lie in the way consumers interact with digital commerce. Celent anticipates that AI agents—virtual tools that act on behalf of users—will initiate transactions across sectors like travel, food and drink, digital content, and financial services. These agent-driven transactions could account for €191bn of total e-commerce spending across the five countries by 2035, representing 17.5% of the market.
Tietoevry Banking head of instant, retail payments and cards Natalija Dmitrijeva said, “The opportunity for European banks over the next 10 years is enormous. This report – while not attempting to provide an accurate prediction for the future – does highlight clear areas for development and growth. To play a leadership role in an expanding and changing payment landscape, banks and fintechs must be clear on the way one wants to play in e-commerce, digital wallets, and the development of digital identity infrastructure.”
Dmitrijeva added, “Succeeding in this future landscape will mean more than outstanding technology solutions. It will also mean working with external partners on the gradual removal of siloed payment operations that are already acting as barriers to growth. At the same time, banks should be working with external partners to modernize their payment systems in preparation for an instant Account-to-Account future, as well as adopting a flexible strategy that allows them to maintain a profitable payment business and adapt to the huge changes that are coming.”
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