One senior U.S. government official has described the effort to secure quantum computing as “the Manhattan Project” of our time.
According to Moody’s, the race to gain an edge in quantum technology is accelerating, with countries vying to harness this powerful computational force that promises to tackle challenges far beyond the reach of classical computing. Quantum’s ability to solve complex routing, resource allocation, and scheduling tasks dramatically faster could drive breakthroughs across industries and science—unlocking remarkable opportunities for efficiency and cost savings.
Yet this technological leap brings risks that could upend the balance of power and global security. With quantum computing now moving closer to mainstream use, governments are in a race against time to secure supply chains critical to its development. Central to this mission are questions about controlling exports, handling sensitive technology transfers, and addressing the wider industrial security challenges linked to semiconductors and advanced computer chips. Comparisons to the Manhattan Project are not made lightly—few modern issues carry such far-reaching geopolitical weight.
The promise of quantum computing has become clear across sectors. For logistics and supply chains, quantum capabilities could transform the way companies solve complicated routing and resource tasks, enabling real-time optimisation on a global scale. Firms could cut waste, streamline global networks, and achieve operational gains that traditional computing simply can’t deliver.
In the financial sector, quantum is positioned to reshape portfolio management and risk forecasting. By processing massive datasets and modelling complex markets, quantum-powered tools could give financial institutions an edge—spotting hidden trends and strengthening risk mitigation. From stress-testing economic scenarios to fine-tuning investments, quantum computing could redefine the competitive landscape in global finance.
The technology’s impact doesn’t stop there. Quantum’s reach extends into artificial intelligence, materials science, cryptography and beyond. By breaking through current computational limits, quantum computing could drive faster advances in machine learning and boost progress in fields that rely on complex system modelling.
However, alongside this promise lies significant risk. Like the nuclear age before it, quantum technology’s sheer power can undermine vital safeguards. The chief concern is its potential to crack the encryption protocols that protect global communications, transactions and critical infrastructure. As one official warned at a recent event attended by Moody’s executives, “Quantum computers can break all of our codes in a nanosecond.” This stark reality has fuelled a rush to develop quantum-proof cybersecurity before malicious actors can exploit these vulnerabilities.
Securing the quantum future means more than building the most powerful machines. It’s also about controlling who shapes the future rules of encryption and digital sovereignty. Global rivals are weaving quantum technology into national strategies to boost power and influence. To counter this, the U.S. and its partners are working to map the entire quantum ecosystem—tracking who develops platforms, securing critical patents, tracing supply origins, and closing gaps in international research collaboration that could leave back doors open to threats.
Countries like the UK and Germany are stepping up oversight of quantum tech, while the Dubai Electronic Security Center in the U.A.E. has announced fresh measures to tackle quantum-related threats. The RAND Corporation has underscored the urgency, calling the quantum supply chain opaque, fragmented and poorly mapped—spanning everything from cryogenic hardware makers to photonic chip start-ups. Such a scattered landscape is a magnet for hacking, IP theft, and supply chain tampering.
Protecting this evolving supply chain demands rigorous tools. Governments need open-source intelligence, verified datasets, and deep visibility into who owns what across the quantum space. These insights help uncover hidden risks, from patent disputes to cross-border licensing traps that could leak sensitive knowledge.
Moody’s highlights four priority areas for nations keen to secure the quantum race. First, identify who is driving technological development and who receives R&D funding—tracking partnerships that link universities with private firms. Second, map supply chains end-to-end, scrutinising vendor links and the origins of key parts. Third, keep watch on high-risk patent clusters and ownership webs that could expose breakthroughs to hostile actors. Finally, model the infrastructure challenges tied to the rise of quantum and AI. Moody’s estimates that $2tn in server capacity will be needed soon, demanding close checks on where data centres are built and how secure they are against geopolitical and climate threats.
Much like the Manhattan Project, winning the quantum race will hinge on constant collaboration between governments, industry leaders, and the scientific community. Moody’s aims to support this effort by equipping governments with the intelligence to navigate this fast-changing technological frontier—giving allies a clearer picture of who is pushing the boundaries and where new risks may emerge.
