February’s market landscape was defined by AI-driven anxiety and mixed economic signals, according to Exante’s latest monthly market report. While Nvidia delivered a historic earnings quarter, investor reaction was surprisingly muted — a telling sign of just how sky-high expectations had become.
Nvidia posted Q4 FY2026 revenue of $68.13bn, a 73.2% year-on-year jump that beat Wall Street’s $66.13bn consensus, Exante explained. Earnings per share came in at $1.62, above the $1.54 estimate, while data centre revenue alone hit $62.3bn — up 75% year-on-year. Net income surged 79.2% to $39.55bn for the quarter, pushing full-year profit to $117bn. Despite the clean beat, shares rose just 3–4% in after-hours trading before giving back almost all of those gains, settling near $195. As Exante notes, Nvidia’s average post-earnings move over the past five years has been 6.5%, making Wednesday’s restrained reaction a signal in itself.
Guidance was arguably the most compelling part of the report. Nvidia projected Q1 revenue of between $76.44bn and $79.56bn, implying 77% year-on-year growth — the fastest pace since early 2025. The company also confirmed that first samples of its next-generation Vera Rubin chip had shipped to customers, with volume production targeted for the second half of 2026. Chief executive Jensen Huang framed agentic AI as the next major growth vector, stating that inference now directly translates to revenue for customers.
The broader US equity picture in February was similarly mixed. The S&P 500 was up just 0.10% month-to-date, the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.87%, while the Dow Jones edged up 0.58% and the Russell 2000 gained 1.90%. Among mega-cap tech names, Apple rose 5.68% and Nvidia added 2.32%, but Amazon shed 11.98%, Meta fell 8.77%, and Alphabet dropped 7.43%.
European markets fared considerably better. The FTSE 100 climbed 5.70% month-to-date, the CAC 40 gained 5.32%, and the Stoxx 600 added 3.68%. Telecom stocks led the way in Europe, up 14.54%, while HSBC shares rose after the bank beat profit estimates and raised a key earnings target.
On the macroeconomic front, Exante flags a growing stagflation risk heading into March. US GDP slowed to just 1.4% in Q4, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — the December core PCE deflator — accelerated to 3.0% year-on-year, above consensus and double the previous month’s monthly pace. January CPI did cool to 2.4%, but sticky services inflation and tariff-driven cost pressures continue to complicate the Fed’s path.
Adding to the uncertainty is the post-Supreme Court tariff turmoil. Following the court’s invalidation of emergency tariffs in late February, the White House pivoted to a 10% global import surcharge, with signals of a potential increase to 15%. The EU has threatened to reactivate up to €93bn in retaliatory levies, while China warned of potential rare-earth export restrictions.
Gold has been a standout beneficiary of the uncertainty, rising 19.71% year-to-date to $5,164.55 per ounce.
With stagflation risks mounting, trade policy in flux, and AI expectations running high, March looks set to be another testing month for investors.
For more insights into the markets, read the full report here.
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