Research and advisory firm Prometeia has analysed the performance of the oil, gas and consumable fuels sector in the weeks following the outbreak of the Middle East conflict and the attack on Iran on 28 February.
Its findings show the sector gaining 6.6% over that period, against a 4.9% contraction in global equities — a gap of more than eleven percentage points.
Prometeia attributes the divergence largely to the behaviour of Brent crude prices, with front-month futures rising 48.2% as markets factored in geopolitical risk and potential supply disruptions. The firm notes this occurred despite uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz, where a partial blockade has weighed on the volume of hydrocarbons moving through global trade routes.
The shift in sentiment is also visible in how analysts have revised their earnings expectations for the sector, according to Prometeia. The forward earnings estimate, which stood at –0.3% at the end of February, has since moved to +3.6% — a near four percentage point revision that reflects a changed view on the sector’s near-term profitability.
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