Italian industrial production has grown for a third consecutive month, according to analysis by Prometeia, offering tentative relief to financial services operators monitoring the country’s economic health amid persistent geopolitical instability.
Output rose 0.5% month-over-month in April, following gains of 0.6% in March and 0.2% in February. The run of consecutive growth, excluding pandemic-era swings and the post-Ukraine war rebound of 2022 , has not been seen since 2019, underscoring just how unusual the current environment is for Italian manufacturing.
The result was unexpected, it said. Business surveys had pointed to a likely slowdown, driven by elevated uncertainty around global trade and supply chains. Instead, Prometeia suggests a front-loading effect may explain much of the momentum: firms appear to have accelerated both production and procurement to hedge against potential supply chain disruption.
Fragility, however, remains a defining feature of the outlook. Ongoing difficulties in reaching a peace agreement in the Middle East continue to weigh on energy costs and operator expectations. That said, Prometeia notes a modest shift in sentiment: households and businesses appear increasingly inclined to believe conditions will not worsen materially, even without a near-term resolution.
Italian industry, in Prometeia’s assessment, finds itself caught between two opposing forces. Geopolitical uncertainty and its associated cost pressures on one side; a cautious but growing optimism about the quarters ahead on the other. The net result is a scenario of weak but positive growth, a trajectory that, notably, was already the base case before the Middle East conflict escalated.
Prometeia’s forecasts point to a dip in May (-0.8%), attributed largely to a statistical readjustment following recent strong months, before a return to modest positive territory in June (+0.4%) and a slight contraction in July (-0.1%). Across the second quarter as a whole, the firm projects average growth of 0.6%, enough to more than offset the first quarter’s marginal decline of 0.2%.
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