Weather-related catastrophes have already reshaped the financial landscape in 2025, with insured losses from such events accounting for a staggering 98% of total claims in the first half of the year, according to LSEG.
LSEG Data & Analytics recently delved into climate risk ahead of COP30.
The losses surpass any previous annual record, underscoring how climate-related hazards such as the Los Angeles wildfires and devastating monsoon floods in Pakistan continue to inflict both human and economic damage at unprecedented scales, it said.
Now in its fifth year, the physical risk chapter of LSEG’s COP30 Net Zero Atlas examines how physical climate threats are evolving across eight major G20 economies — the US, China, Japan, Germany, the UK, France, Italy, and Türkiye.
The study uses highly localised data, integrating projections for individual hazards with sub-national GDP and population datasets to paint a clearer picture of where risk is intensifying.
The report’s findings reveal an alarming outlook. By 2050, nearly half a billion additional people and around $20tn in GDP are expected to be exposed to high physical climate risk, bringing the total at-risk population to 839 million and economic exposure to $28.3tn.
Cyclone exposure, for example, is expected to rise significantly, threatening major urban centres including Tokyo, New York, and Shanghai. In Japan, over 80% of GDP and the population will be subject to a Category 1 or stronger typhoon at least once a decade — up from less than 5% today.
Heatwaves and water stress are also set to worsen dramatically. The report projects that more than 327 million people will face prolonged extreme heat exceeding 35°C for over 30 days each year by mid-century. Cities such as Los Angeles, Houston, Shanghai, and Hong Kong will be among the most affected, while 670 regions are forecast to face high water stress, heightening risks to health, infrastructure, and productivity.
Flooding presents another significant concern, particularly in the UK, which is projected to have the highest share of GDP and population exposure among the eight countries assessed. By 2050, up to 9.7% of the UK’s GDP could be at risk, including $100bn from the Thames Estuary region alone. Meanwhile, wildfire exposure is projected to intensify globally, putting an additional 16.4 million people at risk. In California, around 9.5 million residents could be directly affected by increasing fire frequency and severity.
The COP30 Net Zero Atlas distinguishes itself through its granular, sub-national focus — a key differentiator from other climate reports that typically assess exposure at the national level.
This report marks the first instalment of the COP30 Net Zero Atlas, with the full edition — covering both transition and physical risks — expected to launch in the coming weeks ahead of COP30.
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