Generative AI has long dazzled with its technical capabilities, but the real economic question, as analysts at Prometeia point out, is whether it can translate those capabilities into broad, measurable productivity gains across firms, sectors and workers.
Early empirical evidence is promising. Research cited by Prometeia shows that in tasks such as writing, coding and text analysis, generative AI can deliver efficiency gains often running into double digits. Notably, the strongest improvements tend to appear among less experienced workers, suggesting the technology can act as a complement to human performance rather than a straightforward substitute for labour.
However, these gains are largely confined to specific tasks rather than entire occupations or production systems. Jobs are complex bundles of activities that are difficult to standardise or automate wholesale, which is why economy-wide productivity estimates remain far more cautious than the early task-level data suggest.
From tasks to the wider economy
Prometeia frames AI as a general-purpose technology, akin to earlier waves of electrification or digitalisation, with the potential to reshape many sectors over time. But such technologies rarely produce an immediate productivity surge. History shows they typically require a period of adaptation during which firms invest in data infrastructure, software, training and organisational redesign before gains become widespread, it said. AI may therefore register first as a wave of capital investment and operational restructuring, potentially causing labour market disruption, before becoming a sustained driver of growth.
Europe’s diffusion problem
For Europe, and Italy in particular, Prometeia’s analysis identifies diffusion, not innovation, as the critical bottleneck. Larger firms tend to move first, given their access to scale, data and financial resources. Smaller businesses often lag, constrained by tighter budgets and skills shortages. Firm-level data already show that AI adopters record higher labour productivity, but the gains appear strongest where adoption is paired with complementary investment in software, data management and worker training, Prometeia explained.
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