The ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is emerging as one of the most consequential macroeconomic flashpoints of 2026, according to the latest monthly brief from Prometeia.
The Italian economic research firm warns that sustained inflationary pressure from the energy disruption is weighing heavily on global expansion, with its forecast for world GDP growth this year cut to 2.5%.
Despite some pockets of early-year resilience, Prometeia’s May 2026 briefing finds deepening divergences across major economies. The United States is among the most affected developed markets, with growth projections for both 2026 and 2027 trimmed back to 1.8%. Annual inflation running at 3.8% in April is already curbing household spending, and the outlook for private consumption remains fragile.
China offers a brighter spot in Prometeia’s analysis. First-quarter performance came in at 5.0% year-on-year, prompting a modest upward revision to the 2026 full-year forecast, now pegged at 4.6%. However, the research house cautions that underlying domestic demand in China remains structurally fragile, limiting how far that momentum can carry.
The Euro Area presents a more sobering picture. Inflation re-emerged as the dominant constraint on recovery, reaching 3.1% year-on-year in April, and Prometeia has lowered its 2026 growth estimate for the bloc to just 0.6%. The firm anticipates the European Central Bank will act with a rate hike ahead of the summer.
Italy, meanwhile, finds itself navigating the same headwinds with considerably less room to manoeuvre. Prometeia nudged its 2026 GDP forecast for the country fractionally higher to 0.5%, reflecting a better-than-expected first quarter. Yet the firm warns that a contraction is likely in the second quarter as elevated energy prices erode business and consumer confidence. Annual inflation is forecast to average 3.0% across 2026.
With Italy’s debt-to-GDP ratio sitting at 138.2%, Prometeia identifies the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) as the principal policy tool available to buffer against external shocks, given the country’s limited fiscal space.
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