Research from Italian economic consultancy Prometeia reveals that despite escalating tariff measures between the United States and China, the two economies remain far more intertwined than trade headline figures suggest, with Asian intermediaries quietly absorbing the shock.
Throughout 2025, the Trump administration intensified its tariff offensive against Beijing, building on measures introduced during the president’s first term. Prometeia notes that while the stated ambition was to rebalance the trade deficit and rewire global supply chains away from Chinese dependence, the underlying economic relationship has proved remarkably resilient.
Direct Chinese exports to the United States fell 20% in 2025. However, Prometeia’s analysis shows this was offset by a 30% surge in US imports from other Asian economies, including Vietnam, India, Thailand, and Hong Kong. Simultaneously, Chinese exports to those same countries rose 12%. The pattern strongly implies that a significant portion of goods destined for American consumers continued to originate within Chinese production networks, simply routed through regional intermediaries, it said.
Electronics accounted for roughly 60% of the total reduction in China-US bilateral trade. Prometeia identifies computers, smartphones, and telecommunications equipment as the most exposed product categories. Vietnam, for example, functions as a major assembly hub, yet remains heavily reliant on China for advanced components. The value added, in other words, continues to flow from Chinese industry even when the final export origin does not.
By 2025, the US was sourcing 13% of total imports directly from China, down from a higher baseline, while other Asian nations supplied 23% of American foreign demand. China, meanwhile, directs 37% of its exports to other Asian markets, rising to 50% for electronics alone. Prometeia warns that this apparent geographic fragmentation may mask a continuity of industrial ties rather than signal a genuine economic separation.
The consultancy concludes that disrupting a trade flow does not necessarily mean disrupting an economic relationship. In Asia’s deeply integrated production ecosystem, trade war policies may be reshaping the map of commerce without fundamentally altering who makes what, or for whom.
For more insights, read the full report here.
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