When climate models start moving markets

climate

At the close of 2025, Zillow, the largest residential property listing platform in the United States, quietly withdrew its climate risk scores from property listings.

According to Consilient, the move reportedly followed complaints from estate agents and homeowners who argued that the ratings were skewing perceptions of value and undermining sales activity.

Zillow had been publishing climate risk indicators directly on individual listings, highlighting exposure to hazards such as flooding and wildfire. Buyers could see the scores alongside price, location and property features. The result, in some cases, was a measurable cooling of demand.

One high-profile example involved a Florida mansion marketed at $295m — at the time the highest asking price in the country. Located in an area flagged as having significant flood exposure, the property saw successive price reductions before eventually being withdrawn. The physical risk profile had not altered. What changed was the visibility of a quantified risk score, presented in a way that encouraged buyers to adjust their valuation assumptions.

This is a dynamic that regulated financial institutions understand well. When models influence credit approvals, pricing, or access to services, they are subject to formal governance. Outcomes must be explainable, defensible and open to challenge at the level of the individual.

Zillow operated outside that regulatory perimeter. Yet once its climate scores were displayed at the individual-property level, their economic impact began to resemble that of models long governed within financial services. At that point, the model ceased to be merely informational and became a market actor. When outputs are surfaced directly to decision-makers and applied asset by asset, they do more than inform — they shape liquidity, pricing and behaviour at scale.

In regulated financial services, that threshold triggers enhanced oversight. A comparable model deployed within a bank would first undergo a materiality assessment. If it had the potential to influence collateral values, lending terms or customer outcomes, it would be classified as high impact. That designation would require senior ownership, independent risk review and formal approval before release.

Validation would extend beyond predictive accuracy. Reviewers would test conceptual soundness, sensitivity to assumptions and the handling of uncertainty. In climate modelling particularly, regulators expect clarity on margins of error and caution against presenting complex, probabilistic phenomena as definitive single-number scores. A context-free metric, especially where consequences are concentrated at the individual level, carries governance risk.

Institutions would also need to ensure explainability and challenge mechanisms. Where model outputs affect valuation or lending, individuals must be able to understand key drivers — such as elevation data or proximity to flood plains — and have access to a route for review or correction.

Post-deployment monitoring would follow. Regulated firms track unintended consequences, including disproportionate impacts across regions or communities. Evidence of consumer detriment or market distortion would ordinarily trigger recalibration or suspension before withdrawal became necessary.

These expectations are embedded in US law. Under the Fair Credit Reporting Act, individuals can access and dispute information used about them. The Equal Credit Opportunity Act requires adverse decisions to be accompanied by reasons. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has confirmed that these standards apply even where complex or opaque models are involved. In the UK, the Financial Conduct Authority focuses on fair outcomes under its principles-based regime. Within the EU, the AI Act designates many financial use cases as high risk, attaching governance and redress obligations accordingly.

Once a model influences value or access at the individual level, aggregate performance metrics are insufficient. The question becomes: can this specific outcome be defended for this specific person, based on the information available at the time?

Notification and complaints processes rarely meet that bar. They are reactive and address harm after it has occurred. In high-volume, automated environments, explanations may be too abstract to enable meaningful challenge. Corrections often fail to feed back systematically into model behaviour. Tail errors accumulate and, in regulated sectors, can escalate into supervisory findings or remediation programmes.

Financial services confronted these issues decades ago when models began determining credit access and pricing. Insurance offers a partial contrast: although heavily model-driven, underwriting and claims decisions historically retained human discretion. That buffer absorbed some error before it reached consumers. However, as automation deepens and manual override narrows, similar governance pressures are emerging.

The broader lesson is clear. Real estate platforms, climate scoring systems and other market-facing technologies are now encountering the same inflection point finance reached years earlier. When model outputs directly shape economic outcomes, governance expectations shift.

High-stakes models require more than technical robustness. They demand individual-level defensibility, transparent explanation, structured review and active monitoring of unintended effects. Financial services provides a working blueprint. As models continue to move markets, accountability can no longer be an afterthought.

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