As reported by EXANTE, the first quarter of 2026’s earnings season has got off to a more resilient start than many analysts had anticipated.
Between 14 and 20 April, 28 S&P 500 companies disclosed their results, among them three Dow Jones Industrial Average constituents, Johnson & Johnson, JPMorgan Chase, and Travelers Companies.
As of 17 April, 93.5% of the 31 S&P 500 companies that had reported at that point beat earnings expectations, while 74.2% exceeded revenue forecasts, a strong opening to the season by most measures.
According to data from FactSet, cited by EXANTE, the blended Q1 earnings growth rate stands at 13.2%, up from 12.6% the previous week and in line with the 13.2% projection recorded at the end of Q1 on 31 March. If this trajectory holds, it would mark the eleventh consecutive quarter of positive earnings growth for the index, as well as the sixth straight quarter of double-digit year-on-year earnings expansion, EXANTE said.
Despite these encouraging figures, the broader macro backdrop remains a source of caution. Reuters has warned that Wall Street’s optimistic projections could face a difficult reality check in the second half of the year, as rising tariffs push up costs, geopolitical tensions persist, and softening consumer demand weighs on profit margins. EXANTE notes that the macro environment has grown increasingly sensitive, with stock price movements now driven more by forward-looking guidance than by historical results.
Sector-level data adds further nuance to the picture. Communication Services leads all sectors with a 61.2% positive earnings surprise, whilst Real Estate has edged past estimates by a modest 0.6%. Financials has seen the most pronounced improvement since the close of Q1, with its earnings growth rate climbing from 15.0% as of 31 March to 19.7%.
The overall S&P 500 surprise factor currently sits at 10.8%, well above the four-quarter average of 7.2% and the five-year average of 7.3%.
EXANTE’s full earnings analysis is available to download via their website.
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