For decades, the investment debate centred on volume. Yet the Prometeia study contends that advanced economies now compete on the quality of their capital: software, R&D, data, patents, organisational know-how and skills, the assets that convert technical progress into productivity.
WealthTech company Prometeia recently delved into the scientific paper “Investimenti e produttività in Italia: quando gli intangibili sono invisibili” published in Confindustria’s Rivista di Politica Economica (No. 1-2026), argues that Italy’s competitiveness problem is no longer about how much it invests, but what it invests in.
The divergence began in the 1990s. Until then, the EU, China and the US invested at broadly comparable levels of 20 to 30% of GDP, with the EU and China converging at around 24% in 1990. China then pursued massive state-backed accumulation, pushing investment above 40% of GDP, while Western economies pivoted towards services and intangible capital. Unlike the integrated US and Chinese markets, the EU remains 27 fragmented national systems, which the authors argue hampers the emergence of global-scale industrial champions.
The intangibles gap is stark. Prometeia’s analysis of WIPO data shows US intangible investment rose from 76% to 92% of total investment between 2010 and 2024. The EU climbed from 44% to 55%, while Italy sat persistently below the European average and has actually reversed course since 2020.
Industrial policy explains part of the lag. Industry 4.0 and Transition 4.0 refreshed Italy’s machinery stock but did far less for software, data and organisational capital, leaving firms modernised but unable to fully exploit new technologies.
The productivity cost is measurable. The econometric work behind the Prometeia paper finds the top 10% of Italian firms by intangible investment intensity post annual total factor productivity growth of roughly 0.8%, around 30% above the national average estimated by ISTAT. A comparison with Spain reinforces the point: buoyed by foreign direct investment and stronger intangible accumulation, Spain has enjoyed more robust productivity growth during expansions.
There are grounds for optimism. Newer measures, from the hyper-depreciation scheme to Transizione 5.0, now extend incentives to advanced intangibles such as software and AI. But the researchers stress that human capital is the missing complement; technology only delivers productivity when matched with skills.
That matters most for Physical AI, the coming integration of AI into robots, smart automation and connected machines. Italy holds Europe’s second-largest industrial robot base and a highly specialised manufacturing sector. If paired with faster accumulation of software, data and expertise, Prometeia suggests the intangibles lag could flip into a competitive edge. The challenge ahead is not to invest more, but to invest differently.
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