Capgemini has warned that banks could have up to $230bn in payments revenue at risk as stablecoins, tokenised deposits and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) move from experimentation into mainstream commercial use.
The findings come from the Capgemini Research Institute‘s World Payments Report 2027, published on 24 September 2026.
The report forecasts that stablecoins, tokenised deposits and CBDCs could account for around 4% of global payments volume by 2030, putting pressure on traditional banking revenue streams including foreign exchange spreads, correspondent banking, float income and transaction processing fees.
The technology could help address some of the friction associated with traditional cross-border payments while potentially unlocking up to $4tn currently held in settlement and liquidity accounts, according to the report.
Corporate interest in these payment methods is also increasing, although banks retain a degree of trust. Some 71% of corporates would choose a bank over a FinTech for tokenised payments where cost and quality are equal.
That advantage could diminish if banks fail to keep pace. Almost 60% of corporates would consider non-bank providers for stablecoin services if their banks do not offer competitive solutions, while non-bank providers already handle 36% of corporate B2B payment volumes.
Tokenised deposits have emerged as the leading near-term priority among bank executives, partly because they remain on bank balance sheets and can operate within existing regulatory frameworks. However, only 21% of banks are actively scaling at least one form of intelligent money, with the remaining 79% still assessing their options.
The report identifies these 21% as “leaders”, with the group focusing on specific corporate use cases and looking beyond transaction fees for new sources of value.
These banks are three times more likely than mainstream institutions to identify new revenue opportunities and expect to replace lost transaction income within 15 months, compared with 25 months among their peers. The difference also extends to strategy. Around one-third of leading banks intend to help shape the emerging intelligent money ecosystem, while 40% of mainstream banks plan to take a more reactive approach.
The irreversible nature of settlement through intelligent money is also increasing the importance of compliance and transaction monitoring. Leading banks are 1.5 times more active than mainstream institutions in cross-network transaction monitoring and 1.2 times more likely to invest in AI-powered monitoring of unusual wallet activity.
They are also more likely to conduct real-time Anti-Money Laundering (AML) and Know Your Customer (KYC) checks directly within payment flows.
However, technology and skills remain a barrier. Only 56% of leading banks say they have the talent and technical capabilities required for tokenisation, smart contracts and interoperability across networks.
This could become a critical constraint as banks move from pilots to commercial deployment and attempt to protect existing payment revenues while developing new services.
Capgemini global head of payment services Jeroen Hölscher said, “The payments industry is entering its most significant period of disruption since the emergence of digital banking. We are moving past the intelligent money hype cycle into a period where the economics and transaction volumes make it impossible for banks to remain on the sidelines.”
He added, “With $230 billion at stake, banks must decide what role they want to play in this emerging ecosystem.”
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