The global energy map is no longer drawn by cost but by allegiance, and according to new analysis from Prometeia, 2026 has shown how fast those alignments can reverse.
Energy markets have always been defined by imbalance, with some nations producing far more than they use and others relying heavily on imports. Prometeia notes that until 2022, those gaps were closed by simple economics: buyers sourced from the cheapest, closest supplier. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ended that model. Security and politics now come first, and efficiency trails well behind.
Before the war, Russian pipelines delivered roughly 40% of Europe’s gas imports. Europe has since rebuilt its supply base almost entirely, leaning on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States, Qatar and Norway, while cutting demand, mandating storage levels and expanding renewables. Russia, meanwhile, pushed discounted oil towards India and China, using a “shadow fleet” to bypass the embargo and the G7 price cap. Gas has proved harder to reroute, with new Asian pipelines unable to replace lost European volumes.
Prometeia argues that trade direction is now a political variable rather than a geographic one. Following Maduro’s arrest, Venezuela has come under US control, and its crude is heading to US Gulf Coast refineries instead of China. Canada is moving the opposite way. Facing tariffs and annexation threats, it has accelerated exports through its Pacific pipeline, where China is now the top buyer. The irony, Prometeia observes, is that Washington “captures” Venezuela while nudging a close ally towards Beijing. Both crudes are heavy and sulphur-rich, ideal for Gulf refineries that light US shale cannot supply, which explains both moves.
The result is a fragmented, two-tier pricing system. Europe’s TTF gas benchmark peaked at €300/MWh in 2022 and remains three to four times pre-war levels, while US Henry Hub prices have held at $3–4/MMBtu. In oil, Russian Urals traded $20–30 below Brent in 2022–23, giving China and India cheaper access while Europe pays full price plus higher logistics costs.
Prometeia identifies Europe as the clear loser, with its energy bill roughly tripling in 2022. The US emerges as the strategic winner through record LNG and crude exports, while Russia’s revenues peaked above $300bn before eroding.
Looking ahead, Prometeia flags three pressures: depleted inventories and a weakened US Strategic Petroleum Reserve needing to be refilled; a thinning shale cushion as Permian productivity declines; and a wave of new LNG capacity between 2025 and 2028 that could ease prices, unless demand from data centres and AI absorbs it. The 2026 Hormuz shock underlined how fragile the Gulf route remains.
Prometeia’s conclusion is stark: energy trade has become a choice of camp, producing a world of blocs, multiple prices and greater volatility, with Europe the most exposed.
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